11 february 2019

Motivation

Early Years Population Distribution

World in the years

Population distribution

World Population Density Distribution

Demographic Transition

  • Stage One: Pre-Industrial Revolution, high birth rates and death rates
  • Stage Two: The Country is developing, death rates tents to diminish while birth rates stay high: population is growing
  • Stage Three: Births starts to decrease thanks to the better economic and living conditions
  • Stage Four: Birth rates and death rates are both low, so population is stabilizing
  • Stage Five (possible stage): Birth rates have fallen below death rates, the population is older

Demographic Transition in Italy

Demographic Transition in Italy

Population Growth Rate (PGR)

The PGR measures the rate at which the number of individuals in a population increases in a given time period:

\[ PGR = \frac{P(t_2) - P(t_1)}{P(t_1)(t_2 - t_1)} \]

What are the Prospects?

Human Population Growth Chart!

How much population there will be in the world in 2100?

Logistic model for Population Growth:

\[ \frac{dN}{dt} = rN(1-\frac{N}{K}) \] Integrating:

\[ N(t) = \frac{K N_0 e^{-rt}}{K + N_0(e^{-rt}-1)} \]

Where \(N_0\) is the starting number of individuals.

Logistic model for Population Growth

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References and Data Sources

World Bank Data

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Dataset Variables:

  • Country Name
  • Country Code
  • Indicator Name
  • Indicator Code
  • years from 1960 to 2017